Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil
| Autor: | Sandro Dimy Barbosa Bitar, Wilhelm Alexander Steinmetz |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Předmět: |
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Distancing Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Science Population Pneumonia Viral infectious diseases 03 medical and health sciences Betacoronavirus 0302 clinical medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Collective awareness Cities Socioeconomics education Pandemics 030304 developmental biology 0303 health sciences education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary SARS-CoV-2 Social distance COVID-19 Models Theoretical compartment model Geography Communicable Disease Control epidemiology Coronavirus Infections Brazil |
| Zdroj: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências v.92 n.4 2020 Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) instacron:ABC |
| Popis: | We use a compartmental model to project scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Manaus, with different degrees of social distancing and isolation of infectious individuals. In a scenario without any containment measures, our projections point to more than 50,000 (simultaneously) infectious individuals before the end of April 2020. Only in a scenario with strict and extensive social distancing (lockdown), implemented and observed as of March 23rd, 2020, would this number be less than 50,000 in the first half of June. Furthermore, an increase in the number of tests or in the collective awareness among the population regarding the importance of strict distancing measures would have only had a significant impact if implemented before the end of March. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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