A novel risk score model for prediction of contrast-induced nephropathy after emergent percutaneous coronary intervention
| Autor: | Shiqun Chen, Jiyan Chen, Ning Tan, Wei-ping Zheng, Wei-jie Bei, Kai-yang Lin, Yong Liu, Lin Xue, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Male
medicine.medical_specialty medicine.medical_treatment Population Contrast-induced nephropathy Contrast Media 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology Logistic regression Risk Assessment 03 medical and health sciences Percutaneous Coronary Intervention 0302 clinical medicine Predictive Value of Tests Internal medicine medicine Humans Prospective Studies 030212 general & internal medicine Acute Coronary Syndrome education Aged Aged 80 and over education.field_of_study Framingham Risk Score business.industry Incidence (epidemiology) Percutaneous coronary intervention Acute Kidney Injury Middle Aged Models Theoretical medicine.disease Surgery Logistic Models Conventional PCI ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction Population study Female Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine business |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Cardiology. 230:402-412 |
| ISSN: | 0167-5273 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.12.095 |
| Popis: | Background A few studies developed simple risk model for predicting CIN with poor prognosis after emergent PCI. The study aimed to develop and validate a novel tool for predicting the risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in patients undergoing emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods 692 consecutive patients undergoing emergent PCI between January 2010 and December 2013 were randomly (2:1) assigned to a development dataset ( n =461) and a validation dataset ( n =231). Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify independent predictors of CIN, and established CIN predicting model, whose prognostic accuracy was assessed using the c-statistic for discrimination and the Hosmere Lemeshow test for calibration. Results The overall incidence of CIN was 55(7.9%). A total of 11 variables were analyzed, including age >75years old, baseline serum creatinine (SCr)>1.5mg/dl, hypotension and the use of intra-aortic balloon pump(IABP), which were identified to enter risk score model (Chen). The incidence of CIN was 32(6.9%) in the development dataset (in low risk (score=0), 1.0%, moderate risk (score:1–2), 13.4%, high risk (score≥3), 90.0%). Compared to the classical Mehran's and ACEF CIN risk score models, the risk score (Chen) across the subgroup of the study population exhibited similar discrimination and predictive ability on CIN (c-statistic:0.828, 0.776, 0.853, respectively), in-hospital mortality, 2, 3-years mortality (c-statistic:0.738.0.750, 0.845, respectively) in the validation population. Conclusions Our data showed that this simple risk model exhibited good discrimination and predictive ability on CIN, similar to Mehran's and ACEF score, and even on long-term mortality after emergent PCI. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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