Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives
| Autor: | Frédéric Clette, V. Nollau, A. L. Baranovski |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Sunspot lcsh:QC801-809 Geology Astronomy and Astrophysics Solar cycle 24 Dalton Minimum lcsh:QC1-999 Solar cycle Maxima and minima Nonlinear system lcsh:Geophysics. Cosmic physics Space and Planetary Science Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Curve fitting Applied mathematics lcsh:Q Predictability lcsh:Science lcsh:Physics Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | Annales Geophysicae, Vol 26, Pp 231-241 (2008) Annales Geophysicae, Vol 26, Iss 2, Pp 231-241 (2008) |
| ISSN: | 1432-0576 |
| Popis: | In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters – the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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