Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries
| Autor: | Adrian E. Raftery, Jonathan J. Azose |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
pseudo-Bayes estimation
South asia Social Sciences Global migration Global population 0502 economics and business international migration 050602 political science & public administration Humans bilateral migration flows Country of birth 050207 economics Transit (satellite) Mexico Estimation Transients and Migrants Multidisciplinary 05 social sciences Statistics Emigration and Immigration United States 0506 political science Emigration Geography PNAS Plus 8. Economic growth Physical Sciences Demographic economics |
| Zdroj: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| ISSN: | 1091-6490 |
| Popis: | Significance Despite the importance of international migration, estimates of between-country migration flows are still imprecise. Reliable record keeping of migration events is typically available only in the developed world, and the best existing methods to produce global migration flow estimates are burdened by strong assumptions. We produce estimates of migration flows between all pairs of countries at 5-year intervals, revealing patterns obscured by previous estimation methods. In particular, our estimates reveal large bidirectional movements in all global regions, with roughly one-quarter of migration events consisting of returns to an individual’s country of birth. We propose a method for estimating migration flows between all pairs of countries that allows for decomposition of migration into emigration, return, and transit components. Current state-of-the-art estimates of bilateral migration flows rely on the assumption that the number of global migrants is as small as possible. We relax this assumption, producing complete estimates of all between-country migration flows with genuine estimates of total global migration. We find that the total number of individuals migrating internationally has oscillated between 1.13 and 1.29% of the global population per 5-year period since 1990. Return migration and transit migration are big parts of total migration; roughly one of four migration events is a return to an individual’s country of birth. In the most recent time period, we estimate particularly large return migration flows from the United States to Central and South America and from the Persian Gulf to south Asia. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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