Structural Property Losses from Tornadoes in Florida
| Autor: | Elsner, James, Ryan, Emily, Strode, Georgianna |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Global and Planetary Change Geography 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Meteorology bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Geography|Physical and Environmental Geography 0208 environmental biotechnology Regression analysis 02 engineering and technology Structural property Grid cell SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Geography Social and Behavioral Sciences bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Geography 01 natural sciences SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Geography|Physical and Environmental Geography 020801 environmental engineering Property value Physical and Environmental Geography bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences Environmental science SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences Tornado Social Sciences (miscellaneous) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Popis: | Property losses from tornadoes in Florida are estimated by combining a 1-km spatial grid of structural values from the Department of Revenue’s 2014 cadastral database with historical tornado events since 1950. There are 91 180 grid cells in the state with at least some structural value. Total and residential structural values total $942 billion and $619 billion, respectively. Over the period 1950 through 2015 there were 3233 individual tornado reports in the state with a peak frequency during June. The property value exposed to tornadoes is estimated using a geometric model for the path. Annual statewide total and residential structural property exposure to tornadoes is estimated at $171 million and $103 million, respectively. Property exposure to tornadoes peaks in February. A regression model quantifies the relationship between actual losses since 2007 and exposures. A doubling of the residential exposure increases actual recorded losses by 26% since 2007, and a doubling of nonresidential exposure increases losses by 21%, controlling for changes over time. Randomization of the historical tornado paths provides alternative exposure scenarios that are used to determine the probability of extreme loss years. Results from the Monte Carlo algorithm indicate a 1% chance that the annual loss will exceed $430 million and a 0.1% chance that it will exceed $1 billion. These findings, and the procedure to obtain them, should help property insurance and reinsurance companies gauge their risk of losses and prioritize their management actions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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