A contemporary reassessment of the US surgical workforce through 2050 predicts continued shortages and increased productivity demands
| Autor: | Timothy M. Pawlik, Wendelyn M. Oslock, Robert Tamer, E. Christopher Ellison, Julie A. Maurer, Heena P. Santry, Bhagwan Satiani, Joshua D. Hawley, Thomas E. Williams, David P. Way, Kyle L. Sharp |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
Population Specialty Efficiency Workload Surgical workforce Specialties Surgical medicine Humans Health Workforce education Productivity Surgeons education.field_of_study Health Services Needs and Demand business.industry General Medicine medicine.disease United States Otorhinolaryngology Orthopedic surgery Workforce Surgery Medical emergency business Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | American journal of surgery. 223(1) |
| ISSN: | 1879-1883 |
| Popis: | Background We aimed to predict practicing surgeon workforce size across ten specialties to provide an up-to-date, national perspective on future surgical workforce shortages or surpluses. Methods Twenty-one years of AMA Masterfile data (1997–2017) were used to predict surgeons practicing from 2030 to 2050. Published ratios of surgeons/100,000 population were used to estimate the number of surgeons needed. MGMA median wRVU/surgeon by specialty (2017) was used to determine wRVU demand and capacity based on projected and needed number of surgeons. Results By 2030, surgeon shortages across nine specialties: Cardiothoracic, Otolaryngology, General Surgery, Obstetrics-Gynecology, Ophthalmology, Orthopedics, Plastics, Urology, and Vascular, are estimated to increase clinical workload by 10–50% additional wRVU. By 2050, shortages in eight specialties are estimated to increase clinical workload by 7–61% additional wRVU. Conclusions If historical trends continue, a majority of surgical specialties are estimated to experience workforce deficits, increasing clinical demands substantially. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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