Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data
| Autor: | Hugo Le Boulzec, Louis Delannoy, Baptiste Andrieu, François Verzier, Olivier Vidal, Sandrine Mathy |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy (STEEP), Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann (LJK), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Gustave Eiffel-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), ANR-21-CE03-0012,SCARCYCLET,Rareté et recyclage des matériaux pour la transition énergétique(2021) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
General Energy
Materials requirements Embedded CO2 emissions Fossil fuels Mechanical Engineering [SDE]Environmental Sciences Building and Construction Management Monitoring Policy and Law [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance Energy transition Embedded energy JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q49 - Other |
| Zdroj: | Applied Energy Applied Energy, 2022, 326, ⟨10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119871⟩ |
| ISSN: | 0306-2619 |
| Popis: | International audience; The low-carbon energy transition requires a widespread change in global energy infrastructures which in turn calls for important inputs of energy and materials. While the transport and electricity sectors have been thoroughly analyzed in this regard, that of the hydrocarbon industry has not received the same attention, maybe in part due to the difficulty of access to the necessary data. To fill this gap, we assemble public-domain data from a wide variety of sources to present a stock-flow dynamic model of the fossil fuels supply chain. It is conducted from 1950 to 2050 and along scenarios from the International Energy Agency. We estimate the concrete, steel, aluminum and copper requirements for each segment, as well as the embedded energy and CO2 emissions through a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model. We find that (i) the material intensities of oil, gas and coal supply chains have stagnated for more than 30 years; (ii) gas is the main driver of current and future material consumption; and (iii) recycled steel from decommissioned fossil fuels infrastructures could meet the cumulative need of future low-carbon technologies and reduce its energy and environmental toll. Furthermore, we highlight that regional decommissioning strategies significantly affect the potential of material recycling and reuse. In this context, ambitious decommissioning strategies could drive a symbolic move to build future renewable technologies from past fossil fuel structures. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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