Different transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1) v pandemic: A comparative analysis of 12 European countries

Autor: Flasche, S, Hens, N, Boelle, Py, Mossong, J, van Ballegooijen WM, Nunes, B, Rizzo, C, Popovici, F, Santa-Olalla, P, Hruba, F, Parmakova, K, Baguelin, M, van Hoek AJ, Desenclos, Jc, Bernillon, P, Camara, Al, Wallinga, J, Asikainen, T, White, Pj, Edmunds, Wj, Arias, P, Avdicova, M, Bella, A, Bermingham, A, Carreira, M, Catarino, J, Cucuiu, R, Declich, S, Dias, C, Donker, T, Even, J, Fonteneau, L, Furtado, C, Gastellu-Etchegorry, M, Guiomar, R, Gutierrez, I, Hahne, Sj, van der Hoek, W, van den Kerkhof, H, Kremer, J, Koopmans, M, Kurchatova, A, Leon, L, van der Lubben MI, Ontanon, Sd, Meijer, A, Nogueira, P, Opp, M, Paixao, E, Pebody, R, Pistol, A, Van Ranst, M, Robesyn, E, Rota, Mc, Reichert, P, Salmaso, S, van der Sande MA, Schutte, M, Moros, Mjs, van Steenbergen, J, Vaux, S, Weicherding, P
Rok vydání: 2011
Předmět:
Male
Extinction probability
Epidemiology
medicine.disease_cause
Disease Outbreaks
law.invention
Influenza A Virus
H1N1 Subtype
0302 clinical medicine
Risk Factors
law
Pandemic
Influenza A virus
Swine-origin influenza A H1N1 virus
030212 general & internal medicine
Child
Holidays
0303 health sciences
Schools
Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
Regression analysis
Middle Aged
humanities
3. Good health
Statistical models
Europe
Transmission (mechanics)
Infectious Diseases
Regression Analysis
Seasons
Adult
Adolescent
Doenças Evitáveis pela Vacinação
Microbiology
Young Adult
03 medical and health sciences
Age Distribution
Mixing patterns
Virology
Influenza
Human
medicine
Humans
Epidemiologia
Social Behavior
Weather
Pandemics
030304 developmental biology
Absolute humidity
Extinction
business.industry
Public Health
Environmental and Occupational Health
Seasonality
Estados de Saúde e de Doença
medicine.disease
Parasitology
business
Demography
Zdroj: Epidemics
Epidemics; Vol 3
ISSN: 1755-4365
Popis: Following the emergence of a novel strain of influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico and the United States in April 2009, its epidemiology in Europe during the summer was limited to sporadic and localised outbreaks. Only the United Kingdom experienced widespread transmission declining with school holidays in late July. Using statistical modelling where applicable we explored the following causes that could explain this surprising difference in transmission dynamics: extinction by chance, differences in the susceptibility profile, age distribution of the imported cases, differences in contact patterns, mitigation strategies, school holidays and weather patterns. No single factor was able to explain the differences sufficiently. Hence an additive mixed model was used to model the country-specific weekly estimates of the effective reproductive number using the extinction probability, school holidays and weather patterns as explanatory variables. The average extinction probability, its trend and the trend in absolute humidity were found to be significantly negatively correlated with the effective reproduction number - although they could only explain about 3% of the variability in the model. By comparing the initial epidemiology of influenza A (H1N1) across different European countries, our analysis was able to uncover a possible role for the timing of importations (extinction probability), mixing patterns and the absolute humidity as underlying factors. However, much uncertainty remains. With better information on the role of these epidemiological factors, the control of influenza could be improved. UK Medical Research Council for Centre funding;European PCRD 7 (Flumodcont); Institute for the Promotion of Innovation by Science and Technology in Flanders (IWT), project number 060081 and by the IAP research network nr P6/03 of the Belgian Government (Belgian Science Policy)
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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