ModisCfied Holt s Linear Trend Method
| Autor: | Sedat Capar, Idil Yavuz, Guckan Yapar, Hanife Taylan Selamlar |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
0206 medical engineering
Exponential smoothing Initialization 02 engineering and technology General Medicine Extension (predicate logic) 020601 biomedical engineering 030218 nuclear medicine & medical imaging Data set 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Simple (abstract algebra) Autoregressive integrated moving average Algorithm Smoothing Linear trend Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. 48 |
| ISSN: | 1303-5010 |
| Popis: | Exponential smoothing models are simple, accurate and robust forecasting models and because of these they are widely applied in the literature. Holt's linear trend method is a valuable extension of exponential smoothing that helps deal with trending data. In this study we propose a modified version of Holt's linear trend method that eliminates the initialization issue faced when fitting the original model and simplies the optimization process. The proposed method is compared empirically with the most popular forecasting algorithms based on exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins ARIMA with respect to its predictive performance on the M3-Competition data set and is shown to outperform its competitors. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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