A hidden anchor: The influence of service levels on demand forecasts
| Autor: | Behnam Fahimnia, Meysam Arvan, Tarkan Tan, Enno Siemsen |
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| Přispěvatelé: | University of Zurich, Fahimnia, Behnam |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Předmět: |
anchor
behavior Strategy and Management forecasting 1803 Management Science and Operations Research service level Management Science and Operations Research Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering 330 Economics 10004 Department of Business Administration sales and operations planning 1408 Strategy and Management 2209 Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering judgment |
| DOI: | 10.5167/uzh-226993 |
| Popis: | Demand planning is informed by demand forecasts, service level requirements, replenishment constraints, and revenue projections. “Demand forecasts” differ from “demand plans” in that forecasts only represent the distribution (or the most likely value) of product demand. Motivated by common forecasting practices in industry, our research examines whether forecasters recognize this difference between demand forecasts and demand plans. Based on a lab experiment informed by data from two large FMCG companies, we found that forecasters factor service levels into their demand forecasts, even when they are clearly instructed to predict the most likely demand and incentivized to minimize the forecast error. We establish that this result holds for students and practitioners alike, and show that this behavior is driven by the service level information, and not some other anchor. We use data from a recent industry survey to support the external validity of our key findings. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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