Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble

Autor: Alex C. Ruane, Joshua Elliott, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, James P. Chryssanthacopoulos, Philippe Ciais, Christoph Müller, Almut Arneth, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Xuhui Wang, Juraj Balkovic, Wenfeng Liu, Erwin Schmid, Stefan Olin, Hong Yang, Delphine Deryng, Curtis D. Jones, Rastislav Skalský, Christian Folberth, Ashwan Reddy
Přispěvatelé: Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, University of Chicago, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Department of Geographical Sciences [College Park], University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes (GIMAP), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM), Lund University [Lund], Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Climate
Plant Science
01 natural sciences
Soil
Agricultural Soil Science
Edaphology
Econometrics
ddc:550
Plant Growth and Development
2. Zero hunger
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean
Atmosphere
Multidisciplinary
Uncertainty
Eukaryota
Agriculture
04 agricultural and veterinary sciences
Plants
Crop Production
Experimental Organism Systems
Agricultural soil science
Erosion
Soil horizon
Medicine
Core model
Agrochemicals
Research Article
Crops
Agricultural
Science
Soil Science
Crops
Research and Analysis Methods
Model Organisms
Hydrology (agriculture)
Plant and Algal Models
Grasses
Fertilizers
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces
environment
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Models
Statistical
Impact assessment
Crop yield
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Organisms
Biology and Life Sciences
Geomorphology
15. Life on land
Crop Management
Maize
Earth sciences
13. Climate action
Animal Studies
Earth Sciences
040103 agronomy & agriculture
0401 agriculture
forestry
and fisheries
Environmental science
Scale (map)
Crop Science
Developmental Biology
Zdroj: PLoS ONE
PLoS ONE, Public Library of Science, 2019, 14 (9), pp.e0221862. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0221862⟩
PLOS ONE, 14 (9), Article: e0221862
PLoS ONE, Vol 14, Iss 9, p e0221862 (2019)
PLoS ONE, 2019, 14 (9), pp.e0221862. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0221862⟩
ISSN: 1932-6203
Popis: Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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