Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

Autor:	Brian C. Briggeman, Christopher J. Zakrzewicz, B. Wade Brorsen
Rok vydání:	2013
Předmět:	Economics and Econometrics Land Values Agriculture business.industry agriculture forecasting land value qualitative Land Economics/Use G21 Q14 Economics Land value business Consensus forecast Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) Agricultural economics
Zdroj:	Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 45:159-170
ISSN:	2056-7405 1074-0708
DOI:	10.1017/s1074070800004648
Popis:	This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naïve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::f02b881593a35344dead56e62c65dd7a https://doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800004648 Zobrazit plný text záznamu