Quantifying the influence of short-term emission reductions on climate
| Autor: | Gregory M. Flato, Nathan P. Gillett, Michael Sigmond, Viatcheslav Kharin, J. C. Fyfe, Neil C. Swart |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Greenhouse Effect
Atmospheric Science Internationality Time Factors 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Slowdown Climate Rain Environmental Studies Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences 03 medical and health sciences chemistry.chemical_compound Earth system model Precipitation Research Articles 030304 developmental biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 0303 health sciences Multidisciplinary Air Temperature SciAdv r-articles Carbon Dioxide Term (time) Aerosol chemistry Greenhouse gas Carbon dioxide Environmental science Research Article |
| Zdroj: | Science Advances |
| ISSN: | 2375-2548 |
| Popis: | Emission reductions associated with pandemic containment are nowhere close to affecting climate and reducing global warming. The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has resulted in a marked slowdown in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Although the resulting emission reductions will continue to evolve, this will presumably be temporary. Here, we provide estimates of the potential effect of such short-term emission reductions on global and regional temperature and precipitation by analyzing the response of an Earth System Model to a range of idealized near-term emission pathways not considered in available model intercomparison projects. These estimates reveal the modest impact that temporary emission reductions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global and regional climate. Our simulations suggest that the impact of carbon dioxide and aerosol emission reductions is actually a temporary enhancement in warming rate. However, our results demonstrate that even large emission reductions applied for a short duration have only a small and likely undetectable impact. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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