Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab

Autor: Custodio, A., Carmona-Bayonas, A., Jimenez-Fonseca, P., Sanchez, M. L., Viudez, A., Hernandez, R., Cano, J. M., Echavarria, I., Pericay, C., Mangas, M., Visa, L., Buxo, E., Garcia, T., Rodriguez Palomo, A., Alvarez Mancenido, F., Lacalle, A., Macias, I., Azkarate, A., Ramchandani, A., Fernandez Montes, A., Lopez, C., Longo, F., Sanchez Bayona, R., Limon, M. L., Diaz-Serrano, A., Hurtado, A., Madero, R., Gomez, C., Gallego, J., AGAMENON Study Grp
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
0301 basic medicine
Cancer Research
Esophageal Neoplasms
Neutrophils
Receptor
ErbB-2
Health Status
humanos
neoplasias del esófago
polychemotherapy
0302 clinical medicine
Trastuzumab
nomogramas
Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols
Medicine
Prospective cohort study
mediana edad
neoplasias gástricas
Aged
80 and over
anciano
protocolos de quimioterapia antineoplásica combinada
Ascites
Combination chemotherapy
estado de salud
adulto
Middle Aged
Tumor Burden
adulto joven
Survival Rate
Oncology
030220 oncology & carcinogenesis
Adenocarcinoma
Esophagogastric Junction
gradación neoplásica
medicine.drug
Adult
medicine.medical_specialty
overall survival
European Continental Ancestry Group
Bone Neoplasms
White People
neutrófilos
nomogram
03 medical and health sciences
Young Adult
Stomach Neoplasms
Internal medicine
HER2
unión esofagogástrica
Humans
Derivation
tasa de supervivencia
Lymphocyte Count
Survival rate
web-based calculator
neoplasias óseas
Aged
carga tumoral
business.industry
Nomogram
medicine.disease
recuento de linfocitos
ascitis
Confidence interval
Surgery
Nomograms
030104 developmental biology
Clinical Study
advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma
grupo de ascendencia continental europea
Neoplasm Grading
business
Zdroj: British Journal of Cancer
Repositorio Institucional de la Consejería de Sanidad de la Comunidad de Madrid
Consejería de Sanidad de la Comunidad de Madrid
ISSN: 1532-1827
0007-0920
Popis: Background: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results: The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (Po0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3-8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3-14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6-24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (Po0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591-0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636-0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index = 0.583; P = 0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index = 0.611; P = 0.03351). Conclusions: We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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