Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics
| Autor: | Matthew James Keeling, Lorenzo Pellis, Sam Moore, Michael J. Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Edward M. Hill, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Thomas House, Katrina A. Lythgoe |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak COVID-19 Vaccines Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Adolescent Range (biology) Epidemiology Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Science General Physics and Astronomy Computational biology Biology Models Biological Virus General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology Article law.invention Young Adult Disease severity Immunity law Pandemic Humans Computational models Computer Simulation Pandemics Immune Evasion QR355 Genetics Stochastic Processes Multidisciplinary SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Immune escape COVID-19 General Chemistry Middle Aged Transmissibility (vibration) United Kingdom Transmission (mechanics) Homogeneous Mutation RA Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | Nature Communications Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
| Popis: | Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed. Understanding the potential impacts of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is important for pandemic planning. Here, the authors develop a model incorporating hypothetical new variants with varying transmissibility and immune evasion properties, and use it to project possible future epidemic waves in the UK. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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