Combining historical data and bookmakers’ odds in modelling football scores
| Autor: | Nicola Torelli, Francesco Pauli, Leonardo Egidi |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Egidi, Leonardo, Pauli, Francesco, Torelli, Nicola |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Actuarial science betting odd model checks 05 social sciences football prediction Football 01 natural sciences Connection (mathematics) Odds 010104 statistics & probability Bayesian Poisson model historical results 0502 economics and business Economics 050207 economics 0101 mathematics Statistics Probability and Uncertainty historical result |
| Popis: | Modelling football outcomes has gained increasing attention, in large part due to the potential for making substantial profits. Despite the strong connection existing between football models and the bookmakers’ betting odds, no authors have used the latter for improving the fit and the predictive accuracy of these models. We have developed a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model in which the scoring rates of the teams are convex combinations of parameters estimated from historical data and the additional source of the betting odds. We apply our analysis to a nine-year dataset of the most popular European leagues in order to predict match outcomes for their tenth seasons. In this article, we provide numerical and graphical checks for our model. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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