Evaluation of work resumption strategies after COVID-19 reopening in the Chinese city of Shenzhen: a mathematical modeling study
| Autor: | Yujin Wen, Peng Wei, M. Kumi Smith, Xiuyan Guo, Lei Zhang, Mingwang Shen, Chenwei Liu, Hailin Hu, Veronika Lipkova, Lu Bai, Haonan Lu, Alfred Chixiong Shen, Katherine Harripersaud |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
China
Geographic mobility Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Population Population control 03 medical and health sciences Return to Work 0302 clinical medicine Environmental health Humans population mobility 030212 general & internal medicine Cities education traffic resumption Original Research education.field_of_study Shenzhen 030503 health policy & services Incidence (epidemiology) Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health COVID-19 General Medicine Models Theoretical Metropolitan area work resumption Geography Work (electrical) Quarantine 0305 other medical science |
| Zdroj: | Public Health |
| ISSN: | 0033-3506 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.12.018 |
| Popis: | Objectives As China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown. Study Designs Based on the classic SEITR model and combined with population mobility, a compartmental model was constructed to simulate the transmission of COVID-19 and disease progression in the Shenzhen population. Methods Based on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios. Results Imported cases account for the majority (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage following work resumption, various resumption schemes resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption. Conclusion Regardless of the work resumption strategy adopted in Shenzhen, the risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 after its reopening was limited. The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention. Highlights • With strict inflow population control measures and a high facial masks useage in Shenzhen, differences in the number of infections between various resumption schemes are insignificant. • If the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption, Shenzhen may experience a second wave of infections approximately two weeks after traffic resumption. • The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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