Accounting for time-dependent treatment use when developing a prognostic model from observational data : A review of methods
Autor: | Pajouheshnia, R., Schuster, Noah, Groenwold, R.H.H., Rutten, Frans, Moons, K.G.M., Peelen, L.M., Afd Pharmacoepi & Clinical Pharmacology, Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
marginal structural model
Statistics and Probability Computer science Calibration (statistics) Marginal structural model 01 natural sciences 010104 statistics & probability 0502 economics and business Statistics Covariate 0101 mathematics MARGINAL STRUCTURAL MODELS 050205 econometrics Proportional hazards model 05 social sciences prediction Censoring (statistics) Brier score Estimand inverse probability weights Probability and Uncertainty prognosis Statistics Probability and Uncertainty Predictive modelling Cox regression |
Zdroj: | Statistica Neerlandica, 74(1), 38. Wiley-Blackwell |
ISSN: | 0039-0402 |
Popis: | Failure to account for time-dependent treatment use when developing a prognostic model can result in biased future predictions. We reviewed currently available methods to account for treatment use when developing a prognostic model. First, we defined the estimands targeted by each method and examined their mechanisms of action with directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). Next, methods were implemented in data from 1,906 patients; 325 received selective β-blockers (SBBs) during follow-up. We demonstrated seven Cox regression modeling strategies: (a) ignoring SBB treatment; (b) excluding SBB users or (c) censoring them when treated; (d) inverse probability of treatment weighting after censoring (IPCW), including SBB treatment as (e) a binary or (f) a time-dependent covariate; and (g) marginal structural modeling (MSM). Using DAGs, we demonstrated IPCW and MSM have the best properties and target a similar estimand. In the case study, compared to (a), approaches (b) and (e) provided predictions that were 1% and 2% higher on average. Performance (c-statistic, Brier score, calibration slope) varied minimally between approaches. Our review of methods confirmed that ignoring treatment is theoretically inferior, but differences between the prediction models obtained using different methods can be modest in practice. Future simulation studies and applications are needed to assess the value of applying IPCW or MSM to adjust for treatments in different treatment and disease settings. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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