An original approach was used to better evaluate the capacity of a prognostic marker using published survival curves

Autor: Etienne Dantan, Magali Giral, Christophe Combescure, Joanna Ashton-Chess, Yohann Foucher, Pascal Daguin, Jean-Marc Classe, Marine Lorent
Přispěvatelé: Le Bihan, Sylvie, Jeunes Chercheuses et Jeunes Chercheurs - Construction d'un marqueur composite de substitution de la survie à long terme : application à la transplantation rénale - - CSM (Composite Surrogate Marker)2011 - ANR-11-JSV1-0008 - JCJC - VALID, Biostatistique, Pharmacoépidémiologie et Mesures Subjectives en Santé, PRES Université Nantes Angers Le Mans (UNAM), CRC & Division of Clinical Epidemiology [Geneva, Switzerland] (Department of Health and Community Medicine), Université de Genève = University of Geneva (UNIGE)-Hôpital Universitaire de Genève = University Hospitals of Geneva (HUG), TcL and Expression [Nantes], Centre de Recherche en Transplantation et Immunologie (U1064 Inserm - CRTI), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Nantes - UFR de Médecine et des Techniques Médicales (UFR MEDECINE), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN), Institut de transplantation urologie-néphrologie (ITUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes (CHU Nantes), Département d'oncologie chirurgicale [ICO, Saint-Herblain], Institut de Cancérologie de l'Ouest [Angers/Nantes] (UNICANCER/ICO), UNICANCER-UNICANCER, CIC biothérapies CBT 0503 [Nantes], Hôtel-Dieu de Nantes-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes (CHU Nantes), ANR-11-JSV1-0008,CSM (Composite Surrogate Marker),Construction d'un marqueur composite de substitution de la survie à long terme : application à la transplantation rénale(2011), University Hospitals of Geneva-University of Geneva [Switzerland]
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 2014, 67 (4), pp.441-448. ⟨10.1016/j.jclinepi.2013.10.022⟩
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, Elsevier, 2014, 67 (4), pp.441-448. ⟨10.1016/j.jclinepi.2013.10.022⟩
ISSN: 0895-4356
Popis: International audience; Objectives: Predicting chronic disease evolution from a prognostic marker is a key field of research in clinical epidemiology. However, the prognostic capacity of a marker is not systematically evaluated using the appropriate methodology. We proposed the use of simple equations to calculate time-dependent sensitivity and specificity based on published survival curves and other time-dependent indicators as pre-dictive values, likelihood ratios, and posttest probability ratios to reappraise prognostic marker accuracy.Study Design and Setting: The methodology is illustrated by back calculating time-dependent indicators from published articles presenting a marker as highly correlated with the time to event, concluding on the high prognostic capacity of the marker, and presenting the KaplaneMeier survival curves. The tools necessary to run these direct and simple computations are available online at http://www.divat.fr/ en/online-calculators/evalbiom.Results: Our examples illustrate that published conclusions about prognostic marker accuracy may be overoptimistic, thus giving potential for major mistakes in therapeutic decisions.Conclusion: Our approach should help readers better evaluate clinical articles reporting on prognostic markers. Time-dependent sensitivity and specificity inform on the inherent prognostic capacity of a marker for a defined prognostic time. Time-dependent predictive values, likelihood ratios, and posttest probability ratios may additionally contribute to interpret the marker's prognostic capacity.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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