Trends in average living children at the time of terminal contraception: A time series analysis over 27 years using ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model
| Autor: | Shriram Gosavi, Balaji Almale, Sachin S Mumbare, Aniruddha Kadu, Aruna B Patil, Supriya Dhakane |
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| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: |
education.field_of_study
business.industry lcsh:Public aspects of medicine media_common.quotation_subject Total fertility rate Population Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health family size at sterilization sterilization lcsh:RA1-1270 Fertility Birth rate Sterilization (medicine) Family planning Medicine Original Article Autoregressive integrated moving average time series Rural area education business Demography media_common |
| Zdroj: | Indian Journal of Community Medicine, Vol 39, Iss 4, Pp 223-228 (2014) Indian Journal of Community Medicine : Official Publication of Indian Association of Preventive & Social Medicine |
| ISSN: | 0970-0218 |
| DOI: | 10.4103/0970-0218.143024 |
| Popis: | Background: India's National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Materials and Methods: Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Results: Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Conclusion: Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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