Long Term Expected Revenue of Wind Farms Considering the Bidding Admission Uncertainty
| Autor: | Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna Pillai, Claus Leth Bak, G.R. Yousefi, Mazaher Haji Bashi |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Marginal cost
Control and Optimization Market price uncertainty Stochastic modelling 020209 energy Energy Engineering and Power Technology Bidding Admission uncertainty wind farm expected revenue market price uncertainty bidding Admission uncertainty genetic algorithm PAB and UP auctions long term bidding behavior 02 engineering and technology lcsh:Technology Microeconomics 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Economics Market price Electricity market Revenue Electrical and Electronic Engineering Engineering (miscellaneous) Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment lcsh:T Wind farm expected revenue TheoryofComputation_GENERAL Bidding Term (time) Genetic algorithm Long term bidding behavior Bid shading Energy (miscellaneous) |
| Zdroj: | Bashi, M H, Yousefi, G R, Bak, C L & Pillai, J R 2016, ' Long Term Expected Revenue of Wind Farms Considering the Bidding Admission Uncertainty ', Energies, vol. 9, no. 11, 945 . https://doi.org/10.3390/en9110945 Energies, Vol 9, Iss 11, p 945 (2016) Energies; Volume 9; Issue 11; Pages: 945 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/en9110945 |
| Popis: | As a long term bidding behavior, bid shading is exhibited by wind farms participating in real Uniform Price (UP) markets. This signifies that the wind farm owners bid far below their true long run marginal cost. In this paper a method is proposed to consider the uncertainty of bidding admission in the long term expected revenue of wind farms. We show that this consideration could perfectly explain the observed bid shading behavior of wind farm owners. We use a novel market price model with a stochastic model of a wind farm to derive indices describing the uncertainty of bidding admission. The optimal behavior of the wind farm is then obtained by establishing a multi objective optimization problem and subsequently solved using genetic algorithm. The method is applied to the analysis of long term bidding behavior of a wind farm participating in a Pay-as-Bid (PAB) auction such as Iran electricity market. The results demonstrate that wind farm owners change their bid shading behavior in a PAB Auction. However, the expected revenue of the wind farm will also decrease in a PAB auction. As a result, it is not recommended to make an obligation for the wind farms to participate in a PAB auction as a normal market player. As a long term bidding behavior, bid shading is exhibited by wind farms participating in real Uniform Price (UP) markets. This signifies that the wind farm owners bid far below their true long run marginal cost. In this paper, a method is proposed to consider the uncertainty of bidding admission in the long term expected revenue of wind farms. We show that this consideration could perfectly explain the observed bid shading behavior of wind farm owners. We use a novel market price model with a stochastic model of a wind farm to derive indices describing the uncertainty of bidding admission. The optimal behavior of the wind farm is then obtained by establishing a multi objective optimization problem and subsequently solved using genetic algorithm. The method is applied to the analysis of long term bidding behavior of a wind farm participating in a Pay-as-Bid (PAB) auction such as Iran Electricity Market (IEM). The results demonstrate that wind farm owners change their bid shading behavior in a PAB Auction. However, the expected revenue of the wind farm will also decrease in a PAB auction. As a result, it is not recommended to make an obligation for the wind farms to participate in a PAB auction as a normal market player. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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