Seasonal Soybean Price Transmission between the U.S. and Brazil Using the Seasonal Regime-Dependent Vector Error Correction Model
| Autor: | Jarrett Whistance, Byung Min Soon |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Geography
Planning and Development TJ807-830 Management Monitoring Policy and Law TD194-195 Renewable energy sources law.invention law 0502 economics and business Econometrics medicine Production (economics) GE1-350 050207 economics health care economics and organizations Mathematics soybean products Environmental effects of industries and plants Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment seasonality 05 social sciences fungi food and beverages seasonal regime-dependent vecm Seasonality medicine.disease Error correction model component share Environmental sciences Transmission (mechanics) Vector (epidemiology) soybeans 050202 agricultural economics & policy |
| Zdroj: | Sustainability, Vol 11, Iss 19, p 5315 (2019) Sustainability Volume 11 Issue 19 |
| ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
| Popis: | Soybean production and trade in the U.S. and Brazil are seasonal. Our research question is whether the seasonal tendencies cause the price relationship between U.S. and Brazilian soybean prices. Therefore, the objective is to test for seasonality in the price transmission between the U.S. and Brazil soybean prices using the seasonal regime-dependent vector error correction model (VECM). Our results show that the speed of the adjustment for the U.S. soybean price in the first half of the year is greater than the speed of the adjustment for the Brazilian soybean price. However, the pattern of their responses becomes the reverse in the second half of the year. The component share calculated by the result of the VECM with seasonal effects indicates that the U.S. dominates the world soybean market during the second half of the year while Brazil is dominant in the soybean market in the first half of the year. These results give us an important finding that we could not find using the VECM without seasonal effects. Finally, our results imply that the seasonal pattern of production in the U.S. and Brazil could cause the sustainability of the supply chain in the world soybean market. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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