Local sectoral specialization in a warming world

Autor: Dávid Krisztián Nagy, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Bruno Conte, Klaus Desmet
Přispěvatelé: Conte Leite B., Desmet K., Nagy D.K., Rossi-Hansberg E.
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Economic Geography. 21:493-530
ISSN: 1468-2710
1468-2702
DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbab008
Popis: This paper quantitatively assesses the world’s changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1° by 1° resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada and Scandinavia. Compared with a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil and India’s Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in non-agriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.
Databáze: OpenAIRE