Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary
| Autor: | Jari Haapala, Christian Dieterich, Nina Kirchner, Martin Stendel, Eduardo Zorita, Wenyan Zhang, Alena Bartosova, Gustaf Hugelius, Erik Bonsdorff, Wilhelm May, Anna Rutgersson, Markus Ahola, Göran Lindström, Andreas Lehmann, Erik Kjellström, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Florian Börgel, Volker Dierschke, Laura Tuomi, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Birgit Hünicke, Marcus Reckermann, Matthias Gröger, Elie Gaget, Volker Mohrholz, Ralf Weisse, Mart Jüssi, Antti Halkka, Markus Quante, Claudia Frauen, Jacob Carstensen, Thomas Carlund, Jaak Jaagus, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Kai Myrberg, Paul A. Miller, Ida Carlén, René Capell, Markku Viitasalo, Morten Frederiksen, Jukka Käyhkö, H. E. Markus Meier, Anders Galatius, Karol Kuliński, Madline Kniebusch, Ragnar Elmgren, Oleg P. Savchuk |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Environmental Sciences, Suomen ympäristökeskus, The Finnish Environment Institute |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
Environmental engineering: 610 [VDP]
Miljøteknologi: 610 [VDP] 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Storm-track sensitivity Acid-base system 02 engineering and technology Oceanografi hydrologi och vattenresurser 01 natural sciences Klimatforskning Oceanography Hydrology and Water Resources ilmasto Cryosphere geography.geographical_feature_category scenarios Biosphere 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology Oceanography history lämpeneminen 0210 nano-technology future 1171 Geosciences Climate Research warming Baltic Sea Diurnal temperature-range Climate change historia ilmastovaikutukset Net primary production Effects of global warming Paleoclimatology Sea ice Marine ecosystem 14. Life underwater climate Long-term changes 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Herring clupea-harengus merialueet geography Large-volume changes North-atlantic oscillation Nemo-nordic 1.0 sea areas climatic effects skenaariot Dissolved organic-carbon Itämeri 13. Climate action North Atlantic oscillation General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science tulevaisuus |
| Zdroj: | Meier, H.; Kniebusch, M.; Dieterich, C.; Gröger, M.; Zorita, E.; Elmgren, R.; Myrberg, K.; Ahola, M. P.; Bartosova, A.; Bonsdorff, E.; Börgel, F.; Capell, R.; Carlén, I.; Carlund, T.; Carstensen, J.; Christensen, O. B.; Dierschke, V.; Frauen, C.; Frederiksen, M.; Gaget, E.; Galatius, A.; Haapala, J. J.; Halkka, A.; Hugelius, G.; Hünicke, B.; Jaagus, J.; Jüssi, M.; Käyhkö, J.; Kirchner, N.; Kjellström, E.; Kulinski, K.; Lehmann, A.; Lindström, G.; May, W.; Miller, P. A.; Mohrholz, V.; Müller-Karulis, B.; Pavón-Jordán, D.; Quante, M.; Reckermann, M.; Rutgersson, A.; Savchuk, O. P.; Stendel, M.; Tuomi, L.; Viitasalo, M.; Weisse, R.; Zhang, W.: Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary. In: Earth System Dynamics. Vol. 13 (2022) 1, 457-593. (DOI: /10.5194/esd-13-457-2022) Markus Meier, H E, Kniebusch, M, Dieterich, C, Gröger, M, Zorita, E, Elmgren, R, Myrberg, K, Ahola, M P, Bartosova, A, Bonsdorff, E, Börgel, F, Capell, R, Carlén, I, Carlund, T, Carstensen, J, Christensen, O B, Dierschke, V, Frauen, C, Frederiksen, M, Gaget, E, Galatius, A, Haapala, J J, Halkka, A, Hugelius, G, Hünicke, B, Jaagus, J, Jüssi, M, Käyhkö, J, Kirchner, N, Kjellström, E, Kulinski, K, Lehmann, A, Lindström, G, May, W, Miller, P A, Mohrholz, V, Müller-Karulis, B, Pavón-Jordán, D, Quante, M, Reckermann, M, Rutgersson, A, Savchuk, O P, Stendel, M, Tuomi, L, Viitasalo, M, Weisse, R & Zhang, W 2022, ' Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : A summary ', Earth System Dynamics, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 457-593 . https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 Earth System Dynamics Earth system dynamics, Gottingen : Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH, 2022, vol. 13, iss. 1, p. 457-593 |
| ISSN: | 2190-4987 2190-4979 |
| Popis: | Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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