Natural Variability in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Fine Particulate Matter Pollution
| Autor: | Rebecca K. Saari, Bret D. Pienkosz, Erwan Monier, Fernando Garcia-Menendez |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Pollution
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences media_common.quotation_subject 0207 environmental engineering Climate change 02 engineering and technology Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences Natural (archaeology) lcsh:QH540-549.5 natural variability Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) 020701 environmental engineering Air quality index lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences General Environmental Science media_common lcsh:GE1-350 Global warming air quality climate change fine particulate matter Atmospheric chemistry Greenhouse gas Environmental science lcsh:Ecology Scale (map) |
| Zdroj: | Earth's Future, Vol 7, Iss 7, Pp 762-770 (2019) |
| ISSN: | 2328-4277 |
| Popis: | Author(s): Pienkosz, BD; Saari, RK; Monier, E; Garcia-Menendez, F | Abstract: Variations in meteorology associated with climate change can impact fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution by affecting natural emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and pollutant transport. However, substantial discrepancies exist among model-based projections of PM2.5 impacts driven by anthropogenic climate change. Natural variability can significantly contribute to the uncertainty in these estimates. Using a large ensemble of climate and atmospheric chemistry simulations, we evaluate the influence of natural variability on projections of climate change impacts on PM2.5 pollution in the United States. We find that natural variability in simulated PM2.5 can be comparable or larger than reported estimates of anthropogenic-induced climate impacts. Relative to mean concentrations, the variability in projected PM2.5 climate impacts can also exceed that of ozone impacts. Based on our projections, we recommend that analyses aiming to isolate the effect climate change on PM2.5 use 10nyears or more of modeling to capture the internal variability in air quality and increase confidence that the anthropogenic-forced effect is differentiated from the noise introduced by natural variability. Projections at a regional scale or under greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios can require additional modeling to attribute impacts to climate change. Adequately considering natural variability can be an important step toward explaining the inconsistencies in estimates of climate-induced impacts on PM2.5. Improved treatment of natural variability through extended modeling lengths or initial condition ensembles can reduce uncertainty in air quality projections and improve assessments of climate policy risks and benefits. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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