Ability of epidemiological studies to monitor HPV post-vaccination dynamics:a simulation study

Autor: Mélanie Bonneault, Elisabeth Delarocque-Astagneau, Maxime Flauder, Johannes A. Bogaards, Didier Guillemot, Lulla Opatowski, Anne C. M. Thiébaut
Přispěvatelé: Centre de recherche en épidémiologie et santé des populations (CESP), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Hôpital Paul Brousse-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris-Saclay, Epidémiologie et modélisation de la résistance aux antimicrobiens - Epidemiology and modelling of bacterial escape to antimicrobials (EMAE), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Amsterdam UMC - Amsterdam University Medical Center, AP-HP Hôpital Bicêtre (Le Kremlin-Bicêtre), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Inserm, Institut Pasteur, Institut National Du Cancer, INCa: DOC 2017-123, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, UVSQ, MB was funded by the INCa [grant DOC 2017-123] and MGEN, and her work was supported, M. B. was funded by the INCa [grant DOC 2017-123] and MGEN, and her work was supported by internal resources of Institut Pasteur, the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (Inserm) and the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)., Epidemiology and Data Science, AII - Infectious diseases, APH - Methodology
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Bonneault, M L, Delarocque-Astagneau, E, Flauder, M, Bogaards, J A, Guillemot, D, Opatowski, L & Thiébaut, A C M 2023, ' Ability of epidemiological studies to monitor HPV post-vaccination dynamics : a simulation study ', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 151, e31 . https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268823000122
Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and Infection, 2023, 151, pp.e31. ⟨10.1017/S0950268823000122⟩
Epidemiology and Infection, 151:e31. Cambridge University Press
ISSN: 0950-2688
1469-4409
Popis: Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are caused by a broad diversity of genotypes. As available vaccines target a subgroup of these genotypes, monitoring transmission dynamics of nonvaccine genotypes is essential. After reviewing the epidemiological literature on study designs aiming to monitor those dynamics, we evaluated their abilities to detect HPV-prevalence changes following vaccine introduction. We developed an agent-based model to simulate HPV transmission in a heterosexual population under various scenarios of vaccine coverage and genotypic interaction, and reproduced two study designs: post-vs.-prevaccine and vaccinated-vs.-unvaccinated comparisons. We calculated the total sample size required to detect statistically significant prevalence differences at the 5% significance level and 80% power. Although a decrease in vaccine-genotype prevalence was detectable as early as 1 year after vaccine introduction, simulations indicated that the indirect impact on nonvaccine-genotype prevalence (a decrease under synergistic interaction or an increase under competitive interaction) would only be measurable after >10 years whatever the vaccine coverage. Sample sizes required for nonvaccine genotypes were >5 times greater than for vaccine genotypes and tended to be smaller in the post-vs.-prevaccine than in the vaccinated-vs.-unvaccinated design. These results highlight that previously published epidemiological studies were not powerful enough to efficiently detect changes in nonvaccine-genotype prevalence.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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