The state-dependence of output revisions

Autor: Guilhem Tabarly, Paul Hubert, Bruno Ducoudré
Přispěvatelé: Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) (OFCE), Sciences Po (Sciences Po), Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine (LEDa), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Economics and Econometrics
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling/C.C5.C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods
National accounts
Gross domestic product
JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices
Business Fluctuations
and Cycles
0502 economics and business
Revision analysis
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology • Computer Programs
Econometrics
Economics
Business cycle
State dependence
jel:E3
050207 economics
Predictability
jel:C5
050205 econometrics
jel:C8
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C2 - Single Equation Models • Single Variables/C.C2.C23 - Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology • Computer Programs/C.C8.C82 - Methodology for Collecting
Estimating
and Organizing Macroeconomic Data • Data Access
05 social sciences
Sampling (statistics)
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling
[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
8. Economic growth
Position (finance)
Finance
Panel data
Zdroj: Economics Letters
Economics Letters, 2020, 192, ⟨10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109223⟩
Economics Letters, Elsevier, 2020, 192, ⟨10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109223⟩
Economics Letters, 192, .-(2020-07)
ISSN: 0165-1765
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109223⟩
Popis: This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns — and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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