The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19
| Autor: | Guilhem Cassan, Marc Sangnier |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Université de Namur [Namur] (UNamur), Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), CEPR, Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications (CEPREMAP), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit (CRED), Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas, Development Finance and Public Policies (DeFiPP), Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques (AMSE), École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-École Centrale de Marseille (ECM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek – Vlaanderen (FWO), Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique – FNRS under EOS Project O020918F (EOS ID 30784531), ANR-17-EURE-0020,AMSE (EUR),Aix-Marseille School of Economics(2017), Département d'économie de l'ENS-PSL (ECO ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
Hospitalizations
Economics and Econometrics JEL: D - Microeconomics/D.D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making/D.D7.D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Lobbying Elections Legislatures and Voting Behavior genetic structures Electoral turnout health care facilities manpower and services COVID-19 [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance JEL: I - Health Education and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health JEL: I - Health Education and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I10 - General Municipal elections health services administration ACL-2 / HCERES A JEL: P - Economic Systems/P.P1 - Capitalist Systems/P.P1.P16 - Political Economy Prediction errors health care economics and organizations Demography |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Population Economics Journal of Population Economics, Springer Verlag, 2022, 35 (3), pp.963-988. ⟨10.1007/s00148-022-00887-0⟩ Journal of Population Economics, 2022, 35 (3), pp.963-988. ⟨10.1007/s00148-022-00887-0⟩ Cassan, G & Sangnier, M 2022, ' The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19 ', Journal of Population Economics, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 963-988 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00887-0 |
| ISSN: | 1432-1475 0933-1433 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00148-022-00887-0 |
| Popis: | International audience; Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department’s epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11% of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|