Testing the consistency between goals and policies for sustainable development: mental models of how the world works today are inconsistent with mental models of how the world will work in the future

Autor: Iain Walker, Fabio Boschetti, Claire Richert, Jennifer Price, Nicola J. Grigg
Přispěvatelé: Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages (UMR G-EAU), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Root (linguistics)
Health (social science)
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Sociology and Political Science
Computer science
PREDICTION
media_common.quotation_subject
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes
Geography
Planning and Development
[SHS.PSY]Humanities and Social Sciences/Psychology
forecasting
Management
Monitoring
Policy and Law
01 natural sciences
050105 experimental psychology
MODELE
models
Consistency (negotiation)
policies
0501 psychology and cognitive sciences
Function (engineering)
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Nature and Landscape Conservation
media_common
Sustainable development
Global and Planetary Change
Computational model
climatic change
sustainable development
Ecology
Management science
05 social sciences
POLITIQUE
Cognition
[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society
System dynamics
13. Climate action
CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE
DEVELOPPEMENT DURABLE
Ideology
Social psychology
Zdroj: Sustainability Science
Sustainability Science, Springer Verlag (Germany), 2017, 12 (1), pp.45-64. ⟨10.1007/s11625-016-0384-2⟩
Sustainability Science, 2017, 12 (1), pp.45-64. ⟨10.1007/s11625-016-0384-2⟩
ISSN: 1862-4065
1862-4057
DOI: 10.1007/s11625-016-0384-2⟩
Popis: [Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]GEUSI; International audience; Understanding complex problems such as climate change is difficult for most non‐scientists, with serious implications for decision making and policy support. Scientists generate complex computational models of climate systems to describe and understand those systems and to predict the future states of the systems. Non-scientists generate mental models of climate systems, perhaps with the same aims and perhaps with other aims too. Often, the predictions of computational models and of mental models do not correspond with important implications for human decision making, policy support, and behaviour change. Recent research has suggested non-scientists’ poor appreciation of the simple foundations of system dynamics is at the root of the lack of correspondence between computational and mental models. We report here a study that uses a simple computational model to ‘run’ mental models to assess whether a system will evolve according to our aspirations when considering policy choices. We provide novel evidence of a dual-process model: how we believe the system works today is a function of ideology and worldviews; how we believe the system will look in the future is related to other, more general, expectations about the future. The mismatch between these different aspects of cognition may prevent establishing a coherent link between a mental model’s assumptions and consequences, between the present and the future, thus potentially limiting decision making, policy support, and other behaviour changes.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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