Deriving the 100-Year Total Water Level around the Coast of Corsica by Combining Trivariate Extreme Value Analysis and Coastal Hydrodynamic Models
| Autor: | Julie Mugica, Aurélie Maspataud, Jeremy Rohmer, Thomas Bulteau, Faïza Boulahya, Rodrigo Pedreros, Jessie Louisor |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Return period
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering multivariate extreme value coastal modeling SWAN SWASH-2DH Corsica return level total water level 0211 other engineering and technologies VM1-989 Ocean Engineering GC1-1581 02 engineering and technology Oceanography Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences Mediterranean sea [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques 14. Life underwater Coastal flood Extreme value theory 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering 021110 strategic defence & security studies Flooding (psychology) Wind direction Water level [STAT]Statistics [stat] 13. Climate action [SDE]Environmental Sciences Environmental science Submarine pipeline |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 9, Iss 1347, p 1347 (2021) Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, MDPI, 2021, 9 (12), pp.1347. ⟨10.3390/jmse9121347⟩ Journal of Marine Science and Engineering; Volume 9; Issue 12; Pages: 1347 |
| ISSN: | 2077-1312 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/jmse9121347 |
| Popis: | International audience; As low-lying coastal areas can be impacted by flooding caused by dynamic components that are dependent on each other (wind, waves, water levels—tide, atmospheric surge, currents), the analysis of the return period of a single component is not representative of the return period of the total water level at the coast. It is important to assess a joint return period of all the components. Based on a semiparametric multivariate extreme value analysis, we determined the joint probabilities that significant wave heights (Hs), wind intensity at 10 m above the ground (U), and still water level (SWL) exceeded jointly imposed thresholds all along the Corsica Island coasts (Mediterranean Sea). We also considered the covariate peak direction (Dp), the peak period (Tp), and the wind direction (Du). Here, we focus on providing extreme scenarios to populate coastal hydrodynamic models, SWAN and SWASH-2DH, in order to compute the 100-year total water level (100y-TWL) all along the coasts. We show how the proposed multivariate extreme value analysis can help to more accurately define low-lying zones potentially exposed to coastal flooding, especially in Corsica where a unique value of 2 m was taken into account in previous studies. The computed 100y-TWL values are between 1 m along the eastern coasts and a maximum of 1.8 m on the western coast. The calculated values are also below the 2.4 m threshold recommended when considering the sea level rise (SLR). This highlights the added value of performing a full integration of extreme offshore conditions, together with their dependence on hydrodynamic simulations for screening out the coastal areas potentially exposed to flooding. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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