Trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination effectiveness in Australia and South Africa: results from a modelling study

Autor:	Kathleen Kahn, Nilimesh Halder, Jocelyn Moyes, Joel Kelso, Ian G. Barr, Rhian Twine, George J. Milne, Cheryl Cohen
Rok vydání:	2016
Předmět:	Male 0301 basic medicine Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine Epidemiology Cross Protection 030106 microbiology Antibodies Viral medicine.disease_cause Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Seasonal influenza South Africa 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Influenza Human Influenza A virus Humans Medicine Live attenuated influenza vaccine 030212 general & internal medicine quadrivalent influenza vaccine business.industry Vaccination Australia Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Original Articles Models Theoretical Virology Influenza vaccination Influenza B virus Infectious Diseases Influenza Vaccines Female Original Article seasonal influenza business
Zdroj:	Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
ISSN:	1750-2659 1750-2640
DOI:	10.1111/irv.12367
Popis:	Background A modelling study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of trivalent (TIV) and quadrivalent (QIV) vaccination in South Africa and Australia. Objectives This study aimed to determine the potential benefits of alternative vaccination strategies which may depend on community‐specific demographic and health characteristics. Methods Two influenza A and two influenza B strains were simulated using individual‐based simulation models representing specific communities in South Africa and Australia over 11 years. Scenarios using TIV or QIV, with alternative prioritisation strategies and vaccine coverage levels, were evaluated using a country‐specific health outcomes process. Results In South Africa, approximately 18% fewer deaths and hospitalisations would be expected to result from the use of QIV compared to TIV over the 11 modelled years (P = 0·031). In Australia, only 2% (P = 0·30) fewer deaths and hospitalisations would result. Vaccinating 2%, 5%, 15% or 20% of the population with TIV using a strategy of prioritising vulnerable age groups, including HIV‐positive individuals, resulted in reductions in hospitalisations and mortality of at least 7%, 18%, 57% and 66%, respectively, in both communities. Conclusions The degree to which QIV can reduce health burden compared to TIV is strongly dependent on the number of years in which the influenza B lineage in the TIV matches the circulating B lineages. Assuming a moderate level of B cross‐strain protection, TIV may be as effective as QIV. The choice of vaccination prioritisation has a greater impact than the QIV/TIV choice, with strategies targeting those most responsible for transmission being most effective.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
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