Rethinking case fatality ratios for covid-19 from a data-driven viewpoint
| Autor: | Maria E. Marketou, Phoebus Rosakis |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
FOS: Computer and information sciences
0301 basic medicine Microbiology (medical) Index (economics) Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Lag Pneumonia Viral 030106 microbiology Time lag Statistics - Applications Article Data-driven Betacoronavirus 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Statistics Case fatality rate Humans Applications (stat.AP) 030212 general & internal medicine Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution Pandemics Mathematics SARS-CoV-2 Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) COVID-19 Time optimal Infectious Diseases FOS: Biological sciences Coronavirus Infections Constant (mathematics) |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Infection The Journal of Infection |
| ISSN: | 0163-4453 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.06.010 |
| Popis: | The case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19 is difficult to estimate. One difficulty is due to ignoring or overestimating time delay between reporting and death. We claim that all of these cause large errors and artificial time dependence of the CFR. We find that for each country, there is a unique value of the time lag between reported cases and deaths versus time, that yields the optimal correlation between them is a specific sense. We find that the resulting corrected CFR (deaths shifted back by this time lag, divided by cases) is actually constant over many months, for many countries, but also for the entire world. This optimal time lag and constant CFR for each country can be found through a simple data driven algorithm. The traditional CFR (ignoring time lag) is spuriously time-dependent and its evolution is hard to quantify. Our corrected CFR is constant over time, therefore an important index of the pandemic in each country, and can be inferred from data earlier on, facilitating improved early estimates of COVID-19 mortality. accepted in Journal of Infection; 11 pages, 2 figures, 11 references, supplementary appendix |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect