An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
| Autor: | Jürgen Kurths, Reik V. Donner, Lars Rehm, Niklas Boers, Catrin Ciemer, Ricarda Winkelmann |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Amazon rainforest 010501 environmental sciences Tropical Atlantic 01 natural sciences ddc:550 Hindcast ddc:530 0105 earth and related environmental sciences General Environmental Science Warning system Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment droughts Lead (sea ice) Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Institut für Physik und Astronomie complex networks prediction 550 Geowissenschaften Sea surface temperature Geography 13. Climate action Climatology Amazon basin |
| Zdroj: | Microsoft Academic Graph Environmental Research Letters |
| ISSN: | 1748-9326 |
| DOI: | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff |
| Popis: | Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months. European Union’s Horizon 2020 Belmont Forum/JPI Climate project GOTHAM Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschafthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659 |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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