Interactive Uncertainty Allocation and Tradeoff for Early Stage Design of Complex Systems
| Autor: | Arturo Molina-Cristobal, Albert S. J. van Heerden, Marin D. Guenov, Xin Chen, Atif Riaz |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
020301 aerospace & aeronautics
Mathematical optimization Optimization algorithm Computer science Probabilistic logic Complex system Aerospace Engineering 02 engineering and technology Heat transfer coefficient Avionics 01 natural sciences 010305 fluids & plasmas Surrogate model 0203 mechanical engineering 0103 physical sciences Airframe Stage (hydrology) |
| Zdroj: | AIAA Journal. 58:1356-1368 |
| ISSN: | 1533-385X 0001-1452 |
| DOI: | 10.2514/1.j058442 |
| Popis: | A common probabilistic approach to perform uncertainty allocation is to assign acceptable variability in the sources of uncertainty, such that prespecified probabilities of meeting performance constraints are satisfied. However, the computational cost of obtaining the associated tradeoffs increases significantly when more sources of uncertainty and more outputs are considered. Consequently, visualizing and exploring the decision (trade) space becomes increasingly difficult, which, in turn, makes the decision-making process cumbersome for practicing designers. To address this problem, proposed is a parameterization of the input probability distribution functions, to account for several statistical moments. This, combined with efficient uncertainty propagation and inverse computation techniques, results in a computational system that performs order(s) of magnitude faster than a state-of-the-art optimization technique. The approach is demonstrated by means of an illustrative example and a representative aircraft thermal system integration example. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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