SARS-CoV-2 spread forecast dynamic model validation through digital twin approach, Catalonia case study
| Autor: | Xavier Pi i Palomés, Víctor García i Carrasco, Joan Garcia i Subirana, Pau Fonseca i Casas |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Doctorat en Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. IMP - Information Modeling and Processing |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0209 industrial biotechnology
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Catalonia Biomatemàtica Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Computer science Process (engineering) General Mathematics Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] 02 engineering and technology Notation Machine learning computer.software_genre Model validation 03 medical and health sciences 020901 industrial engineering & automation 0302 clinical medicine Exposed Infected and Recovered and Death) SDL QA1-939 Computer Science (miscellaneous) Anàlisi multivariable 030212 general & internal medicine Engineering (miscellaneous) computer.programming_language Biomathematics Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística aplicada::Estadística biosanitària [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] business.industry SARS-CoV-2 92 Biology and other natural sciences::92B Mathematical biology in general [Classificació AMS] COVID-19 62 Statistics::62H Multivariate analysis [Classificació AMS] SEIRD (Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered and Death) SEIRD (Susceptible Specification and Description Language Dynamic models Multivariate analysis Artificial intelligence business computer Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) Mathematics Volume 9 Issue 14 O2, repositorio institucional de la UOC Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) Mathematics, Vol 9, Iss 1660, p 1660 (2021) |
| DOI: | 10.3390/math9141660 |
| Popis: | The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 modeling is a challenging problem because of its complex nature and lack of information regarding certain aspects. In this paper, we explore a Digital Twin approach to model the pandemic situation in Catalonia. The Digital Twin is composed of three different dynamic models used to perform the validations by a Model Comparison approach. We detail how we use this approach to obtain knowledge regarding the effects of the nonpharmaceutical interventions and the problems we faced during the modeling process. We use Specification and Description Language (SDL) to represent the compartmental forecasting model for the SARS-CoV-2. Its graphical notation simplifies the different specialists’ understanding of the model hypotheses, which must be validated continuously following a Solution Validation approach. This model allows the successful forecasting of different scenarios for Catalonia. We present some formalization details, discuss the validation process and present some results obtained from the validation model discussion, which becomes a digital twin of the pandemic in Catalonia. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|