Validation of prognostic models in primary biliary cirrhosis
| Autor: | G. P. Jeffrey, N. E. Hoffman, W. D. Reed |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 1990 |
| Předmět: |
Male
medicine.medical_specialty Cirrhosis Bilirubin medicine.medical_treatment Azathioprine Liver transplantation Models Biological Gastroenterology chemistry.chemical_compound Primary biliary cirrhosis Cholestasis Predictive Value of Tests Internal medicine Internal Medicine medicine Humans Aged Prothrombin time medicine.diagnostic_test Liver Cirrhosis Biliary business.industry Albumin Middle Aged Prognosis medicine.disease Survival Analysis chemistry Female business medicine.drug |
| Zdroj: | Australian and New Zealand Journal of Medicine. 20:107-110 |
| ISSN: | 0004-8291 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/j.1445-5994.1990.tb01282.x |
| Popis: | Prognostic models in primary biliary cirrhosis have been validated for large population groups but the predictive value for individual patients has not been tested. We used data from ten deceased patients with primary biliary cirrhosis to test three prognostic models: the Shapiro model (bilirubin); the Christensen model (age, bilirubin, albumin, presence of cirrhosis or cholestasis, azathioprine treatment); and the Dickson model (age, bilirubin, albumin, prothrombin time, oedema). The predictive value of each model for individual patients was determined by assessing whether it would have accurately predicted appropriate timing of liver transplantation in patients prior to death. The Dickson model predicted that four of nine cases would have been considered for liver transplantation one year before death and one of seven cases two years before death. The Christensen model predicted that this procedure would have been considered in three of seven cases two years before death. The Shapiro model was demonstrated to be the least predictive of the three tested. Although none of the three models assessed was found to accurately predict survival, no model predicted a worse survival than actually occurred. Liver transplantation is indicated in those cases with a poor predicted survival. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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