Towards long‐term foresight for transport: envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100
| Autor: | Toni Ahlqvist, Heidi Auvinen, Anu Tuominen |
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| Rok vydání: | 2012 |
| Předmět: |
Vision
Process management socio-technical transformation Computer science Process (engineering) systemicity foresight Delphi method Transition management (governance) roadmapping Futures studies Innovation policy forward-looking policy design Work (electrical) Management of Technology and Innovation Table (database) Operations management Business and International Management Futures contract |
| Zdroj: | Auvinen, H, Tuominen, A & Ahlqvist, T 2012, ' Towards long-term foresight for transport : Envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100 ', Foresight, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 191-206 . https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681211239746 |
| ISSN: | 1463-6689 |
| Popis: | PurposeThis paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long‐term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100.Design/methodology/approachThe vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long‐term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision.FindingsA three‐step vision building process for long‐term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full‐scale strategy‐driven visions.Originality/valueFutures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short‐ to medium‐term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long‐term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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