Decision-Making Process for Photovoltaic Solar Energy Sector Development using Fuzzy Cognitive Map Technique
| Autor: | Dionysis Bochtis, Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou, George Stamoulis, Gustavo Carvalho, Konstantinos Papageorgiou |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Decision support system
Control and Optimization energy management Energy management 020209 energy photovoltaic solar energy Energy Engineering and Power Technology Context (language use) 02 engineering and technology lcsh:Technology 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Scenario analysis Electrical and Electronic Engineering Decision-making Engineering (miscellaneous) decision-support Supply chain management lcsh:T Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Fuzzy Cognitive Maps scenario analysis Environmental economics Fuzzy cognitive map fuzzy cognitive maps Sustainability 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing Business Energy (miscellaneous) |
| Zdroj: | Energies; Volume 13; Issue 6; Pages: 1427 Energies, Vol 13, Iss 6, p 1427 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 1996-1073 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/en13061427 |
| Popis: | Photovoltaic Solar Energy (PSE) sector has sparked great interest from governments over the last decade towards diminution of world’s dependency to fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions reduction and global warming mitigation. Photovoltaic solar energy also holds a significant role in the transition to sustainable energy systems. These systems and their optimal exploitation require an effective supply chain management system, such as design of the network, collection, storage, or transportation of this energy resource, without disregarding a country’s certain socio-economic and political conditions. In Brazil, the adoption of photovoltaic solar energy has been motivated not only by the energy matrix diversification but also from the shortages, problems, and barriers that the Brazilian energy sector has faced, lately. However, PSE development is affected by various factors with high uncertainty, such as political, social, economic, and environmental, that include critical operational sustainability issues. Thus, an elaborate modelling of energy management and a well-structured decision support process are needed to enhance the performance efficiency of Brazilian PSE supply chain management. This study focuses on the investigation of certain factors and their influence on the development of the Brazilian PSE with the help of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. Fuzzy Cognitive Map is an established methodology for scenario analysis and management in diverse domains, inheriting the advancements of fuzzy logic and neural networks. In this context, a semi-quantitative model was designed with the help of various stakeholders from the specific energy domain and three plausible scenarios were conducted in order to support a decision-making process on PSE sector development and the country’s economic potential. The outcome of this analysis reveals that the development of the PSE sector in Brazil is mainly affected by economic and political factors. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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