A prediction model for childhood obesity in New Zealand
| Autor: | Éadaoin M, Butler, Avinesh, Pillai, Susan M B, Morton, Blake M, Seers, Caroline G, Walker, Kien, Ly, El-Shadan, Tautolo, Marewa, Glover, Rachael W, Taylor, Wayne S, Cutfield, José G B, Derraik, Peter, Tricker |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Male
Pediatric Obesity Percentile Science Birth weight 030209 endocrinology & metabolism Overweight Pacific Islands Weight Gain Pediatrics Article Childhood obesity Body Mass Index Cohort Studies Fathers 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Pregnancy Birth Weight Humans Medicine Obesity 030212 general & internal medicine Early childhood Child Multidisciplinary business.industry Infant Newborn Infant Pediatrik Public Health Global Health Social Medicine and Epidemiology medicine.disease Folkhälsovetenskap global hälsa socialmedicin och epidemiologi Risk factors Child Preschool Cohort Female medicine.symptom business Body mass index New Zealand Demography |
| Zdroj: | Scientific Reports Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021) |
| Popis: | Several early childhood obesity prediction models have been developed, but none for New Zealand's diverse population. We aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting obesity in 4–5-year-old New Zealand children, using parental and infant data from the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) cohort. Obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI) for age and sex ≥ 95th percentile. Data on GUiNZ children were used for derivation (n = 1731) and internal validation (n = 713). External validation was performed using data from the Prevention of Overweight in Infancy Study (POI, n = 383) and Pacific Islands Families Study (PIF, n = 135) cohorts. The final model included: birth weight, maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, paternal BMI, and infant weight gain. Discrimination accuracy was adequate [AUROC = 0.74 (0.71–0.77)], remained so when validated internally [AUROC = 0.73 (0.68–0.78)] and externally on PIF [AUROC = 0.74 [0.66–0.82)] and POI [AUROC = 0.80 (0.71–0.90)]. Positive predictive values were variable but low across the risk threshold range (GUiNZ derivation 19–54%; GUiNZ validation 19–48%; and POI 8–24%), although more consistent in the PIF cohort (52–61%), all indicating high rates of false positives. Although this early childhood obesity prediction model could inform early obesity prevention, high rates of false positives might create unwarranted anxiety for families. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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