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Objective: The objectives of this study are: 1.) To calculate the probability of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) events by applying three different equations, which\ud are: the Asia-Pacific Cohort Study (APCS) equation, the Framingham-Asia equation and the original Framingham equation, to the individual risk factors data\ud from the NHESIV, Thailand. 2) To estimate the number of 8-10 years CVD events. 3) To validate and identify the most suitable CVD risk equations for the Thai\ud population. The individual risk factors from the NHESIV dataset was entered into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet as the baseline population.\ud Methods: Asia-Pacific Collaborative Cohort Study (APCCS) equations, the Framingham-Asia equation and the original Framingham equation, are applied to\ud calculate the probability of 8 to 10 years CVD events by age groups and gender. The CVD events in this analysis refer to all fatal and non-fatal CVD events\ud (ICD10, I00-I99), which include Ischemic heart disease (IHD) (ICD10, I20-I25) and stroke (ICD10, I60-I69).\ud Results: The 4th National Health Examination Survey IV 2009 (NHESIV) dataset has been entered into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet as the baseline population.\ud APCCS, the Framingham-Asia and the original Framingham equations, were applied to the NHESIV dataset. The APCCS equation calculated the average 8-years\ud probability of getting CVD as 8.3% in men and 7.8% in women. The 8-year likelihood of CVD in the Framingham-Asia equation was 7.2% in men and 8.1% in\ud women. The original Framingham equation showed the highest probability of 10-years CVD which were 18.8% in men and 11.1% in women.\ud Conclusions: The original Framingham equation overestimated the risk of CVD in the Thai population in all age groups. The Asia-Pacific Cohort Study\ud (APCCS) and the Framingham-Asia equations, both performed better estimation than the original Framingham equation in both men and women. |
