Deviations in criminal filings of child abuse and neglect during COVID-19 from forecasted models: An analysis of the state of Oklahoma, USA
| Autor: | Benjamin Greiner, Tessa Chesher, Sarah Passmore, Amy D. Hendrix, Margaret den Harder, Michael A. Baxter, John Whelan, Micah Hartwell, Sara Coffey |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Child abuse Warrant Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) media_common.quotation_subject Physical Distancing Article Neglect Betacoronavirus 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Risk Factors 030225 pediatrics Pandemic Developmental and Educational Psychology Humans 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences Pediatrics Perinatology and Child Health Child Abuse Autoregressive integrated moving average Child Pandemics Child maltreatment media_common SARS-CoV-2 Social distance Incidence (epidemiology) Filing 05 social sciences COVID-19 Oklahoma Biobehavioral Sciences Psychiatry and Mental health Pediatrics Perinatology and Child Health Psychology Algorithms Forecasting 050104 developmental & child psychology Demography |
| Zdroj: | Child Abuse & Neglect |
| ISSN: | 0145-2134 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.chiabu.2020.104863 |
| Popis: | Background The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to risk factors for child abuse and neglect and disrupted conventional abuse surveillance. Objective The goal of this study was to assess how counts of criminal charges have been affected by COVID-19 social distancing measures and related policy changes. Participants and Setting This study used publicly available court filings pertaining to child abuse and neglect from Jan 1, 2010 to June 30, 2020. Methods Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) algorithms were constructed with case data from January 2010 to January 2020 to forecast trends in criminal charges for February to June 2020. These forecasted values were then compared to actual charges filed for this time period. Results Criminal cases filed between February and June 2020, had an overall 25.7 percent lower average than forecasted. All individual months had progressively lower cases than forecasted with the exception of March. June had the largest deviation from forecasted with 60.1 percent fewer cases than predicted. Conclusions Although risk factors for child abuse have increased due to COVID-19, these findings demonstrate a declining trend in child abuse charges. Rather than a decreasing incidence of child abuse and neglect, it is more likely that less cases are being reported. The results warrant immediate action and further investigation in order to address the dangers this pandemic poses for children in abusive situations. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect