The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance
| Autor: | Harald Yndestad, Jan Erik Solheim |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Solar minimum
Solar oscillation / Solar oscillation 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Grand minima / Grand minima Wavelet analysis Grand minima Solar irradiance Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400 Jupiter 0103 physical sciences Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Solar dynamo 010303 astronomy & astrophysics Instrumentation VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Solar oscillation Physics Sunspot Modern Maximum Uranus Astronomy and Astrophysics Solar maximum Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400 [VDP] Mathematics and natural scienses: 400 [VDP] Space and Planetary Science Physics::Space Physics Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Wavelet analysis / Wavelet analysis |
| Zdroj: | New Astronomy |
| Popis: | Total solar irradiance (TSI) is the primary quantity of energy that is provided to the Earth. The properties of the TSI variability are critical for understanding the cause of the irradiation variability and its expected influence on climate variations. A deterministic property of TSI variability can provide information about future irradiation variability and expected long-term climate variation, whereas a non-deterministic variability can only explain the past. This study of solar variability is based on an analysis of two TSI data series, one since 1700 A.D. and one since 1000 A.D.; a sunspot data series since 1610 A.D.; and a solar orbit data series from 1000 A.D. The study is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis. First, the TSI data series are transformed into a wavelet spectrum. Then, the wavelet spectrum is transformed into an autocorrelation spectrum to identify stationary, subharmonic and coincidence periods in the TSI variability. The results indicate that the TSI and sunspot data series have periodic cycles that are correlated with the oscillations of the solar position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, which is controlled by gravity force variations from the large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. A possible explanation for solar activity variations is forced oscillations between the large planets and the solar dynamo. We find that a stationary component of the solar variability is controlled by the 12-year Jupiter period and the 84-year Uranus period with subharmonics. For TSI and sunspot variations, we find stationary periods related to the 84-year Uranus period. Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065. © 2016. This is the authors’ accepted and refereed manuscript to the article. Locked until 30.8.2018 due to copyright restrictions. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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