Constructing a risk prediction model for anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer resection
| Autor: | Jia-Rui Li, Zhong-Wen Sun, Huiying Qin, Hui Du |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Male
medicine.medical_specialty Medicine (General) Esophageal Neoplasms Pleural effusion Anastomotic Leak 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology anastomotic leakage Biochemistry Sensitivity and Specificity Resection 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine R5-920 Esophagus pleural effusion Retrospective survey Risk Factors Clinical Decision Rules Surveys and Questionnaires medicine Humans Aged Retrospective Studies exudation business.industry Biochemistry (medical) Cell Biology General Medicine Esophageal cancer Middle Aged medicine.disease humanities ROC Curve Anastomotic leakage 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Area Under Curve Female Radiology Self Report business Esophageal cancer resection risk prediction model Retrospective Clinical Research Report early diagnosis |
| Zdroj: | The Journal of International Medical Research Journal of International Medical Research, Vol 48 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 1473-2300 |
| Popis: | Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate a newly constructed risk prediction model for anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer resection. Methods A retrospective survey of 205 patients who underwent esophageal cancer resection was conducted using a self-designed questionnaire. The influencing factors were explored by single factor analysis, and a logistic regression analysis was performed to construct the prediction equation. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the model. Results The incidence of anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer resection was 11.73%. There were five independent risk factors entered into the regression equation. The risk prediction equation was Z = 0.108 × age + 2.011 × preoperative chemotherapy history + 3.007 ×incision redness/exudation + 2.632 × pleural effusion + 1.934 × increased white blood cell count − 12.304. According to the receiver operating characteristic curve test, the area under the curve was 0.946, the sensitivity was 0.833, the specificity was 0.912, and the Youden index was 0.745. Conclusion The risk model of anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer resection had a good predictive effect that was of significance for guiding clinical observation and early-screening. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|