Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

Autor: Mikhail Prokopenko, Oliver M. Cliff, Sheryl L. Chang, Nathan Harding, Cameron Zachreson
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
FOS: Computer and information sciences
0301 basic medicine
Epidemiology
General Physics and Astronomy
Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods
law.invention
0302 clinical medicine
law
Pandemic
Computational models
030212 general & internal medicine
Social isolation
Child
lcsh:Science
Quantitative Methods (q-bio.QM)
Schools
Multidisciplinary
Public economics
Social distance
Transmission (mechanics)
Social Isolation
Quarantine
medicine.symptom
Coronavirus Infections
Multiagent Systems (cs.MA)
Adult
Isolation (health care)
Science
Pneumonia
Viral
Control (management)
education
Article
General Biochemistry
Genetics and Molecular Biology
Compliance (psychology)
Betacoronavirus
03 medical and health sciences
medicine
Humans
Computer Simulation
Computer Science - Multiagent Systems
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Pandemics
SARS-CoV-2
Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
Australia
COVID-19
General Chemistry
Coronavirus
Intervention (law)
030104 developmental biology
Viral infection
FOS: Biological sciences
Communicable Disease Control
lcsh:Q
Business
Zdroj: Nature Communications
Nature Communications, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020)
ISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19393-6
Popis: There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits, unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13--14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.
45 pages, 19 figures
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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