Investigating Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread and Containment with Agent-Based Modeling
| Autor: | Ozlem Ozmen Garibay, Ece C. Mutlu, Alexander V. Mantzaris, Amirarsalan Rajabi |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Technology
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) QH301-705.5 Computer science QC1-999 Tracing epidemics 03 medical and health sciences Key point 0302 clinical medicine Order (exchange) Economic cost Pandemic General Materials Science 030212 general & internal medicine Biology (General) Adaptation (computer science) QD1-999 Instrumentation 030304 developmental biology Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes Adaptive behavior 0303 health sciences Physics Process Chemistry and Technology Social distance General Engineering COVID-19 agent-based modeling Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Computer Science Applications Chemistry Work (electrical) Containment Risk analysis (engineering) Dynamics (music) epidemiology TA1-2040 Contact tracing |
| Zdroj: | Applied Sciences Volume 11 Issue 12 Applied Sciences, Vol 11, Iss 5367, p 5367 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 2076-3417 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/app11125367 |
| Popis: | Governments, policy makers, and officials around the globe are working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by making decisions that strive to save the most lives and impose the least economic costs. Making these decisions require comprehensive understanding of the dynamics by which the disease spreads. In traditional epidemiological models, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during an epidemic, yet adaptive behavior is well documented (i.e., fear-induced social distancing). In this work we revisit Epstein’s “coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease” model in order to extend and adapt it to explore fear-driven behavioral adaptations and their impact on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The inclusion of contact behavior adaptation endows the resulting model with a rich dynamics that under certain conditions reproduce endogenously multiple waves of infection. We show that the model provides an appropriate test bed for different containment strategies such as: testing with contact tracing and travel restrictions. The results show that while both strategies could result in flattening the epidemic curve and a significant reduction of the maximum number of infected individuals testing should be applied along with tracing previous contacts of the tested individuals to be effective. The results show how the curve is flattened with testing partnered with contact tracing, and the imposition of travel restrictions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|