The Impact of Expectations, Match Importance, and Results in the Stock Prices of European Football Teams
| Autor: | Pedro André Cerqueira, Pedro Godinho |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Actuarial science
jel:C30 05 social sciences Economics Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) Information and market efficiency Football Football teams League 01 natural sciences Odds 010104 statistics & probability jel:G14 Stock returns Football results Information in stock markets MGARCH 0502 economics and business Economics Econometrics 050207 economics 0101 mathematics Stock (geology) |
| Zdroj: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) instacron:RCAAP |
| ISSN: | 1552-7794 1527-0025 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/1527002515626222 |
| Popis: | In this study we analyse the link between stock returns and results in national league matches for 13 clubs of six different European countries. We assume that the stock prices should only respond to the unexpected component of match results, and we use betting odds to separate the expected component of the results from the unexpected one. We consider both the unweighted results (each match having the same weight in the model) and the results weighted by a new measure of match importance that we develop. We conclude that, when this measure is used to weight the unexpected component of the results, there is a significant link between the results and stock performance for 12 out of the 13 considered clubs. So, this link can be considered to be quite consistent. We also conclude that using this measure of match importance to weight the unexpected component of the match outcomes leads to an improvement in the results we achieve. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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