| Popis: |
There are various scientific approaches to election forecasting: poll aggregation, structural models, electronic markets, and citizen forecasting. With respect to the German case, the first two approaches—polls and models—perhaps have been the most popular. However, relatively little work has been done deploying citizen forecasting (CF), the approach described in this article. In principle, CF differs considerably from other methods and appears, on its face, quite simple. Before an election, citizens are asked in a national survey who they think will win. As the percentage of expectations for party X increases, the likelihood of an X win is judged to be higher. The method has been applied regularly with success in other established democracies, such as the United Kingdom and the United States.\ud \ud |
