Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany
Autor: | Bernd Kowall, Fabian Standl, Juliane Böttcher, Ulf Dittmer, Bastian Brune, Marcus Brinkmann, Andreas Stang, Karl-Heinz Jöckel |
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Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Microbiology (medical) Adult Male Corona virus 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Younger age Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Adolescent Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 030106 microbiology Pneumonia Viral Medizin Article 03 medical and health sciences Betacoronavirus Young Adult 0302 clinical medicine Age groups Germany Influenza Human Medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Mortality Child Pandemics Aged Excess mortality Aged 80 and over Pandemic business.industry SARS-CoV-2 Infant Newborn COVID-19 Infant Middle Aged Orthomyxoviridae Confidence interval Infectious Diseases Child Preschool Female Seasons business Coronavirus Infections Demography |
Zdroj: | Journal of Infection The Journal of Infection |
ISSN: | 1532-2742 |
Popis: | Highlights • The management of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Germany was named a success story. • A statistically sound estimate of excess mortality has not been made for Germany. • The excess mortality during the first wave of the pandemic is 8071 cases. • After age adjustment, there were 4926 fewer deaths than expected. • Several factors explain the comparatively mild course of the pandemic in Germany. Objectives The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time. Methods We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016–2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60–69, 80–89, and 90+. The age group 70–79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10–23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03–1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80–89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98–0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10–23, 2020. Conclusions The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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