Concession period optimisation in complex projects under uncertainty: a public–private partnership perspective
| Autor: | Kai Guo, Limao Zhang, Tao Wang |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | School of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Finance
Civil engineering [Engineering] business.industry 05 social sciences Perspective (graphical) 0211 other engineering and technologies 02 engineering and technology Building and Construction Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Optimal Design Management Information Systems Public–private partnership Concession Period Concession period Global sensitivity analysis General partnership 021105 building & construction 0502 economics and business Business 050203 business & management |
| Zdroj: | Construction Management and Economics. 39:156-172 |
| ISSN: | 1466-433X 0144-6193 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/01446193.2020.1849752 |
| Popis: | Concession period is decisive in public–private partnership (PPP) projects, particularly for complex projects. A systematic approach incorporating real option analysis (ROA) is proposed to optimise the concession under uncertainty. Options are explored to manage uncertainty in the long concession of PPP projects and an optimisation principle is proposed for the concession optimisation. Sensitivity analysis and case comparison are suggested to test the validity of the optimised concession. Applicability of the approach is tested with a PPP utility tunnel case, in which options to expand and recoup are investigated. Important findings include: (1) interests of participants are balanced through the optimisation, the investment value of the project is increased; (2) profit-sharing mechanism is identified as the most important factor, and a prudent design of it can effectively manage uncertainty; (3) option to recoup can optimise the concession period without harming private developer's interest. This research's novelty lies in (a) exploring the management flexibility and identifying potential options in the concession period of PPP projects; (b) a hybrid approach with the integration of ROA and Sobal-based global sensitivity analysis is proposed to perform the concession optimisation; (c) the profit-risk allocation between participants in PPP projects is balanced under the optimisation principle. Ministry of Education (MOE) Nanyang Technological University The Ministry of Education Tier 1 Grants, Singapore (No. 04MNP000279C120, No. 04MNP002126C120) and the Start Up Grant at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (No. 04INS000423C120) are acknowledged for their financial support of this research. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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