Solar radio proxies for improved satellite orbit prediction
| Autor: | Philippe Yaya, Sean Bruinsma, Louis Hecker, Clémence Le Fèvre, Thierry Dudok de Wit |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES), Institut de physique du globe de Strasbourg (IPGS), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace (LPC2E), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers en région Centre (OSUC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National d’Études Spatiales [Paris] (CNES), Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Orbit modeling 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Meteorology Extreme ultraviolet lithography lcsh:QC851-999 Missing data 01 natural sciences Earth's magnetic field [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] 13. Climate action Space and Planetary Science Drag 0103 physical sciences Physics::Space Physics Environmental science Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Satellite lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Thermosphere Time series 010303 astronomy & astrophysics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Vol 7, p A35 (2017) Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, EDP sciences, 2017, 7 (17 pages), ⟨10.1051/swsc/2017032⟩ |
| ISSN: | 2115-7251 |
| Popis: | International audience; – Specification and forecasting of solar drivers to thermosphere density models is critical for satellite orbit prediction and debris avoidance. Satellite operators routinely forecast orbits up to 30 days into the future. This requires forecasts of the drivers to these orbit prediction models such as the solar Extreme-UV (EUV) flux and geomagnetic activity. Most density models use the 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7 index) as a proxy for solar EUV. However, daily measurements at other centimetric wavelengths have also been performed by the Nobeyama Radio Observatory (Japan) since the 1950's, thereby offering prospects for improving orbit modeling. Here we present a pre-operational service at the Collecte Localisation Satellites company that collects these different observations in one single homogeneous dataset and provides a 30 days forecast on a daily basis. Interpolation and preprocessing algorithms were developed to fill in missing data and remove anomalous values. We compared various empirical time series prediction techniques and selected a multi-wavelength non-recursive analogue neural network. The prediction of the 30 cm flux, and to a lesser extent that of the 10.7 cm flux, performs better than NOAA's present prediction of the 10.7 cm flux, especially during periods of high solar activity. In addition, we find that the DTM-2013 density model (Drag Temperature Model) performs better with (past and predicted) values of the 30 cm radio flux than with the 10.7 flux. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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